over two weeks we see on the international stock markets, completion of a phase which is alternate side day to day positive negative.
It seems that the quotes have lost the plot, and that move in a kind of random walk, while we have shown that in 90% of cases, they have moved and will move about according to rules expressed mathematically.
If we look at the graph of the short S & P 500:
green lines are drawn by the channel in September 2010 and recently broke to the downside.
Blue lines, however, show a figure of "transition" which contains quotes from a bit '. In particular, the bottom line has its origins in January. Should it continue to operate now we should see a small hill. However
quotes will be further compressing, and soon we will have a breakout in volatility.
The same is valid for the other indices.
This motion should bring us down or up?
before defining the likely future of the market in the coming weeks, we take a step backwards, and then try to define the future more likely.
According to statistics of the last 120 years:
The period 2008/2009 was to be a bottom of a thirty-year cycle, and then those minimum levels touched in that period should not be touched for many years, if ever more.
fact, assuming a cycle of 30 years starting from 1798 and it is possible to construct the following sequence: 1798, 1828, 1858, 1888, 1918, 1948, 1978 and 2008/2009.
What they have in common all these years?
In recent years it has always formed a minimum market that has not been broken for a long time if ever.
we analyze each case.
Year 1798: the market has formed a bottom that has not been touched;
Year 1828: the market has formed a bottom has been reached only 11 years later;
Year 1858: the market has formed a bottom that has not been touched;
Year 1888: the market has formed a minimum violated only 5 years later, but only for one year. Then it was not touched;
Year 1918: the market has formed a bottom that has been broken only 11 years later by the crash of 1929;
1948: the market failed to form at least one week in June 1949 and never touched. It should be noted that after 1949 began a bull market that lasted until the early seventies;
Year 1978: the market failed to form at least one week in March 1980 and never touched. It should be noted that after 1980 began a bull market that lasted until 2000.
As it can be argued, 120 years of history deny the probability that the minimum in 2009, has a good chance to be remodeled in later years.
This forecasting model, seems to coincide with the model of Armstrong, who, after having shown a reversal in April 2009, considered a likely first Top in June 2011.
And in June 2011, ending a very powerful setup of the new Law of Vibration (to Proiezionidiborsa), who sees price / time balance area in 1520!
We believe that, as history courses and resorts, we are in a bull market phase, that will be remembered in the annals.
And the macroeconomic and geopolitical situations?
We believe that as always, humanity has been progress, and in the coming months and then in the next few years, the economy will tend to improve, and this throw more gasoline on the fire performance of equity markets.
This does not mean that in the coming months and years ahead, we shall not see a strong retracement, but seeing declines of over 15% in the coming years will be very difficult! The 2011/2020 will
decade of rapid expansion of markets, and according to historical statistics only between 2015 and 2017 we see corrections of a certain level.
These projections are calibrated based on historical courses and resorts and is well known to the various steps that should be monitored and will be tuned to any automodifiche that there may be.
Now we can return to the very short term:
expect a rebound of a pair of days, and only if this movement will be drawn the next street.
We are however still very optimistic and believe that the way the track is still plenty of upside.
This does not mean that in the coming weeks there will be no retracements, indeed, we think that will be also possible intraday high corrections, but these will have ended in a rustle of leaves.
In substance, except automodifiche Monthly Top or Bottom, we believe that for now remains in force the simple rule: each
retracement (also 5 / 7%) is a further opportunity to purchase at least until June .. ?!
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